Last year, we predicted that Easter shopping would be clouded by cautiousness. 

Were we right? You tell us. 

We think we were close, and that’s why we’ll want to write another short report to get you ready for what’s to come. 

Let’s jump right in…

Easter spend will rise in 2025

Good news? 

According to the National Retail Federation, Easter spending will rise to $23.6 compared to $22.4B last year. 

But is it too early for the fanfares? Let’s look at the chart the way we love to look at it:

Adding inflation-adjusted total spending allows us to see the real picture.

The actual spending could be higher this year, but not by as much as the chart primarily shows. In fact, the increase might be only half of what the report states.

And zooming out, the spend might reflect last year and the disappointing 2022 spend than it seems at first glance.

What does this mean: While Easter spending is projected to hit a record high on paper, inflation-adjusted figures suggest that real growth is far more modest. 

In other words, consumer spending power hasn’t quite rebounded. 

What you can do: Don’t push “big budget” celebrations. Highlight smart upgrades, thoughtful gestures, and affordable luxuries that make people feel like they’re getting more without spending more.

Less people may celebrate Easter this year

With less money to spend, people are less eager to celebrate. 

At least in the context of buying gifts, eating out with family, or inviting close friends to their home.

This graph proves it:

It seems 79% of US consumers are now likely to spend Easter, down from 81% last year.

While the decrease isn’t that big, and—on paper—might not reflect that much on overall spending, it does show one thing.

The consumer sentiment toward festivities is lower than usual. 

One thing is also telling. The percentage fell below 80% just once from 2008 to 2018. Since 2019, this will be the third time that has happened.

This doesn’t have to mean much. But it could also signal that “uncertainty” is not a one-off, but is becoming a standard.

Which might require a different approach from brands and marketers as well.

Tip: Try shifting your holiday marketing from hype-driven to empathy-led messaging that would acknowledge this uncertainty and focus on small, meaningful moments.

So what will consumers actually buy?

There’s one more chart that can give us a better picture of what we can expect this week:

Pretty good, pretty normal? Even a bit higher than last year for some categories.

But let’s dissect it a bit in context.

Candy (92%) and food (89%) dominate. No surprises here as they’re a core holiday experience.

But let’s move further down. 

Gifts (65%) are still in the top three categories, but seemed to be relatively lower percentage-wise. Does this show gifting isn’t that much of a priority? 

Moving down, you’ll find decorations (51%) and clothing (49%). These two being lower on the list shows that there is less emphasis on bigger, more formal in-person gatherings.

The Crew’s opinion: Easter seemed to be getting scaled down. Consumers are focusing on the essentials and meaningful moments over big, performative celebrations.

What you can do: Lead with essentials and try to bundle with delight. Anchor campaigns around food and candy, then upsell gifts or décor as add-ons that make it special.

Also, you can try to message emotional payoffs such as “Create a cozy Easter brunch” or “Make their basket extra sweet,” for example.

Material value comes second.

The economy did impact Easter plans this year 

So far, all the signals point to another mild Easter season. 

And for the end, we’ll share one report straight from the consumers’ mouth:

This report makes it clear that the economic pressure is rewriting consumer behavior around holidays like Easter.

And all the signs are the same:

• Shopping less (56%).
• Not eating out (54%).
• Looking for sales and discounts (52%).

Are consumer priorities shifting? Obviously, people are not giving up on the holidays. But from this data, it looks like they might be redefining them: smaller, simpler, and smarter.

The Crew’s holiday sales advice: Make it easy to spend less without feeling like it. Promote affordable bundles and “budget-friendly but beautiful” décor. 

Also, try to frame deals as “Smart shopping.” For instance, “Celebrate more for less.”, or “Big smiles, smaller receipts.” 

Another angle: Target in-home experiences (like DIY kits, recipes, or games) over outings. 

In this economy, you might want to help consumers create memorable moments without leaving the house.

The economy turtle takes the lead

Last year, we joked that the Easter Bunny was racing with the economy turtle. 

This year, it seems like the turtle might just nick it.

This report shows that consumers aren’t skipping the holiday, but might celebrate differently—more mindfully, more modestly.

For you, the opportunity might lie in meeting them where they are: with value, empathy, and simplicity. Yes, that’s easy to say…