Low-Ball Effect
Why do we stick with deals that get worse?
In this issue
Your next campaign needs more than another AI clip
You open your laptop. Another request for fresh ad creative. Same deadline. Same budget.
The ideas aren’t the problem. Turning them into videos you can actually use? That’s where production gets stuck.
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Whether you’re developing a product launch video or exploring your next paid social concept, see how the pieces come together—from the first brief to the final cut.
Got a campaign on your list today? Here’s a workflow worth a look.
A friend asks if you can help them move on Saturday. Sure, why not?
Then the details trickle in. Third floor, no elevator, one piano. Oh, and we start at 7 a.m.
You show up anyway, coffee in hand.
That’s the Low-Ball Effect: once we say yes, we tend to stick with it, even when the full cost shows up later.
Robert Cialdini and colleagues put it to the test in 1978. They called students to sign up for a study and mentioned the 7 a.m. start only after they agreed.
56% said yes, compared with 31% who heard the time up front. And 53% actually showed up, versus 24%.
Why? Once we decide, the decision feels like ours, and we resist changing it.
A 2015 meta-analysis of low-ball studies confirmed the effect. The researchers credit our commitment to the action and to the person who asked, plus our wish to look consistent.
It’s everywhere:
- The car salesperson who “checks with the manager” after you’ve shaken hands.
- The “quick five-minute survey” that’s still going at minute 20.
Push it too far, though, and it becomes a bait-and-switch, which regulators now fine. Here’s how brands use the commitment without the trap.
Fees up front, extras after the yes
In 2015, ticket resale site StubHub split its US users in two. Half saw ticket prices with fees included. The other half saw fees only at checkout.
Hidden-fee shoppers spent about 21% more and were 14% more likely to buy. They even picked pricier seats.
As researcher Steven Tadelis put it, “People end up making purchases that in hindsight they would not have made.” It worked a little too well.
In June 2026, the UK’s competition watchdog, the CMA, fined StubHub UK £889,200 for adding unavoidable fees only at the final checkout step. It also ordered refunds for 51,350 customers.
Our take: Put every mandatory fee in the first price people see. The UK has required it since April 2025.
In the US, the FTC requires it for live-event tickets and short-term rentals. Save the after-the-yes moment for true extras, like seat upgrades or ticket insurance.
Step up in daylight
The New York Times brings many new readers in at promotional prices. When the promo ends, the price steps up.
The step-up pays off. In Q2 2026, NYT’s average revenue per digital subscriber rose 3.1% year over year to $9.94 every four weeks.
The main reasons: subscribers moving from promotional to higher prices, and price increases for some long-time readers.
On the Q2 earnings call, CFO William Bardeen said NYT continues to be “pleased with the performance as subscribers roll off their promotions.”
What we think: Cialdini’s team found the low-ball only worked when people made the first decision freely.
So make the intro offer a real choice, and print the regular price and its start date right next to it.
A step-up people saw coming still feels like their own decision.
Raise prices a dollar at a time
Spotify kept its US Premium plan at $9.99 from 2011 until July 2023. Since then, it has added a dollar three times, reaching $12.99 in February 2026.
Did subscribers bail? After raising prices in more than 150 markets, Spotify reported “steady retention rates.”
EV maker Rivian went the other way. In March 2022, it raised prices by up to 20% and applied the hike to existing preorders.
Many reservation holders canceled. Two days later, CEO RJ Scaringe apologized for breaking customers’ trust and honored the original prices.
Our take: The same 2015 meta-analysis found the low-ball works best when the second ask is only slightly bigger than the first.
Small, announced steps keep the commitment intact. A big jump after the handshake can break it.
So. Much. AI news. How do you know what’s worth your attention?
There’s always something new with AI, but not everything deserves your attention.
Good thing The Deep View only focuses on AI developments that could actually impact your work and decisions.
It shares must-know updates into a fun, 5-minute read and has helped 700,000+ professionals stay informed without drowning in the constant flood of updates.
Even readers from Google, Meta, Microsoft, and a16z start their day with these insights.
ECOMMERCE: Shopper back on your product page? They’re probably still deciding. A study tracked people shopping for a smart wristband: nearly half of revisits were to compare options, and only a sliver to buy. Still, revisits flagged the real contenders, since 90% of rejected products never got a second look. Point your retargeting at revisits.
AI SEARCH: AI answers settle trivia, not purchases. In a recent report, 55% of users said a summary is enough for a quick fact, but 71% want a real source before buying. The top two reasons to click through: a trusted expert (24%) and original data (23%). Put both on your page.
BUNDLING: Classic pricing theory says bundles out-earn selling items one by one. Except for scarcity. Researchers modeled dynamic pricing and found that when stock is tight relative to potential buyers, selling items separately wins, and the gap widens as you add items. For limited drops, skip the bundle.
SOCIAL MEDIA: A low CTR can hide real interest. A recent study says 93% of consumers skip a link on purpose so their algorithm won’t serve more of that content, and 43% do it always or often. Add a “How did you hear about us?” question at checkout to catch the quiet fans.
GIFTING: A QR code is hard to gift-wrap. Deloitte’s annual holiday survey found that half of US shoppers plan to gift an experience this year, like a restaurant meal or event tickets, up from 39% in 2024. Yet 79% of them also want a physical item to go with it. Selling experiences? Add something to unwrap.
ICYMI, last time we looked at the Transactional Utility.
The “See you at 7AM” Crew
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