The holiday shopping season is entering its final stretch. 

And if there’s one thing the data makes crystal clear, it’s this: Christmas spending operates on an entirely different level than any other time of year. 

While most holidays see consumers keeping their wallets relatively closed, December transforms even the most budget-conscious shoppers into gift-buying machines. 

But 2025 isn’t your typical year. Inflation, economic uncertainty, and shifting priorities might rewrite the playbook. Let’s see if the data agrees…

Christmas is still the highest-spending holiday per person

While we love receiving chocolates on Valentine’s Day or hunting eggs on Easter, there is only one holiday where our wallets truly open wide:

When it comes to spending over $100, Christmas is in a league of its own. 

According to the data, a whopping 80% of consumers spend more than $100 during the Christmas season.

To put that into perspective, the next closest contender is Thanksgiving, where only 51% cross that threshold, likely due to grocery bills and not gifting.

Meanwhile, holidays like Valentine’s Day and St. Patrick’s Day are much leaner, with the vast majority of people spending less than $50.

The Superbowl of ecommerce: If you’ve been conserving your ad budget, weeks leading up to Christmas is the moment to deploy it. 

The propensity to spend big is nearly double that of any other major holiday.

Our advice? Increase your Average Order Value (AOV) targets for Q4. 

Since users are already conditioned to spend over $100, bundle products to hit a $120+ price point rather than selling single low-ticket items. 

Inflation will impact shoppers in many ways

Remember when we used to buy things just because we liked them?

Well, inflation has entered the chat, and it’s changing the script on howpeople shop. It seems brand loyalty is taking a backseat to price sensitivity. A sign of the times.

The trend lines are clear: consumers are hunting for bargains. Over 60% of shoppers say they will look for more sales than usual this year, a figure that has been steadily climbing since 2022.

Conversely, the number of people saying they “will not change how I shop” has dropped significantly. We are also seeing a rise in shoppers opting for “less expensive gifts” (40%) and taking advantage of specific “deal days”. Interestingly, the “I will re-gift” sentiment remains low.

The spending didn’t necessarily stop. Consumers are just becoming much more strategic about it. They want to feel like they “beat the system” by finding a deal.

Actionable Tip: Frame your marketing copy around “value” and “smart buying.” Use language like “beat the price hikes” or “inflation-busting deals” to align with the consumer’s current psychological state.

Shoppers will be less spending-happy this year

If you thought this year was tight, the data suggests shoppers are already tightening their belts for the next one. 

It looks like the Ghost of Christmas Future is bringing a calculator instead of a turkey:

When asked about spending shifts for the upcoming season, the most common response (38%) is simply to spend less on gifts overall.

But here is where it gets interesting for niche marketers: 20% of consumers plan to focus only on buying gifts for children. 

This suggests that adults are opting out of exchanging gifts with each other to preserve the magic for the kids. Additionally, 21% are looking for budget-friendly food options, and 13% are cutting back on decorations and hosting.

The Crew’s Take: The “adult gift exchange” is the first casualty of a tightening economy. 

Marketing luxury items to adults for other adults might be tougher than selling toys or practical items for kids.

Actionable Tip: If you sell general consumer goods, create “Secret Santa” friendly guides with strict price caps (e.g., “Best Gifts Under $25”) to appeal to the budget-conscious crowd.

Parents are the recession-proof demographic

Who spends more: a single adult with a disposable income, or a parent terrified of disappointing their child on Christmas morning? 

The data gives us a very clear answer.

While general adult spending on gifts is projected to dip slightly from $641 in 2024 to $628 in 2025, households with children are moving in the opposite direction.

Households with children plan to increase spending to $743, up from $710. 

This divergence is critical. While the general population pulls back, parents are digging deeper into their pockets to ensure the holidays remain special.

Parents will sacrifice their own comfort if it means their kid gets that specific LEGO set. The “parental guilt” driver is a more powerful economic force than inflation.  

Segment your email lists. If you can identify parents (based on past purchases of kids’ items), target them with premium, higher-ticket offers. 

For everyone else, emphasize discounts.

Consumer shopping habits haven’t changed, they’ll just buy less 

Is the mall dead? Not quite, but the laptop is certainly winning. 

The landscape of where people buy is shifting, but perhaps not as drastically as tech enthusiasts might think.

Online shopping remains the king of Christmas, with 57% of consumers planning to buy online (though this is slightly dipping to 55% in projections).

However, physical retail still has a massive pulse. Department stores (46%) and Discount stores (45%) are neck-and-neck for second place. Interestingly, small businesses hold a decent chunk of the pie at 23%. 

Another thing we see is that Christmas shopping places haven’t changed much since last year. Besides a few percent drop of people who will actually buy. Anywhere.

What we notice: There isn’t a total exodus from physical stores, but we are seeing a hybrid model.People browse online but might still run to the department store for that last-minute fix.

Got a physical presence? Lean heavily into BOPIS (Buy Online, Pickup In-Store). 

If you are pure e-commerce, emphasize shipping deadlines early to combat the “I’ll just go to the store” panic.

What kind of gifts consumers would like to receive? 

You spend hours agonizing over the perfect, thoughtful, personalized gift. 

Turns out, they just wanted a piece of plastic with money loaded onto it. You might think romance is dying, but practicality is alive and well.

The number one most desired gift remains Gift Cards, with about 53% of consumers wanting them.

Following closely behind is Clothing and Accessories (49%). Books and media take a distant third at 28%, while electronics and home decor hover in the low 20s.

It seems that when money is tight, people prefer gifts that act as currency or practical necessities like clothes, rather than decorative items.

High demand for gift cards suggests “risk aversion” from receivers. They don’t want the waste of a “bad” gift and they want the freedom to choose.

Don’t hide your gift cards in the footer of your website. Feature them prominently as the “Fail-Safe Choice” in your final email blasts before shipping deadlines are cut off.

What kind of Christmas promotions would work for you?

If you are wondering how to structure your offer this season, the data suggests you should keep it simple. Consumers aren’t looking for complex loyalty points or cashback schemes—they want to see the price drop.

The clear winner for favorite promotion is a straight percentage off (e.g. 20% off), favored by 31% of shoppers.This beats out “Buy one, get one free” (23%) and free shipping (22%). 

Surprisingly, “gifts with purchase” and “loyalty points” rank incredibly low, at 7% and 4% respectively. 

Shoppers don’t want extra stuff they didn’t ask for. They want the money to stay in their pocket.

It’s a high-inflation world. In that world, “cashback” or “points” feel like future value while a discount feels like immediate relief. Immediate relief wins.

A/B test your offers, but prioritize “20% off” over “free shipping” in your headlines. If you can, combine them, but lead with the percentage drop.

How do users prefer to pay for Christmas gifts?

Cash is… queen? In the age of Apple Pay and crypto, you might expect digital payments to be sweeping the board. 

But when it comes to holiday shopping, consumers are surprisingly old-school and debt-averse.

Debit cards are the preferred payment method (63%), closely followed by good old-fashioned Cash (60%).

Credit cards trail behind at 47% . Perhaps most surprisingly, despite the massive marketing push for “Buy now, pay later” (BNPL) services, only 12% of consumers prefer using services like Afterpay for gifts. 

This signals a strong desire to spend money they actually have, rather than racking up holiday debt.

Shop now: The low preference for BNPL and high preference for debit/cash suggests consumers are terrified of January credit card bills. They are spending cautiously.

What to do: Display trust badges and secure payment icons for debit transactions prominently. 

While you should offer BNPL, don’t rely on it as your primary conversion driver—most people just want to pay and be done.

Everyone likes discounts, even Santa

This holiday season demands that you target parents aggressively, lead with straightforward discounts, and don’t overcomplicate your offers. 

Shoppers are spending cautiously. But they’re still spending, especially when it comes to their kids. 

What else can you do? Focus on value messaging, optimize for debit card transactions, and make gift cards impossible to miss. 

The opportunity is massive, but only for brands willing to meet customers where they actually are, not where we wish they’d be.