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🧠 Hindsight bias.

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FROM THE CREW

Hey, happy Thursday 👋 – The Crew here!

Do you keep a campaign journal?

You know, a journal where you document all your campaigns, why you make certain decisions, changes, and so on.

You don’t?

Today you’ll discover why you should.

Reading Time = 4 minutes and 55 seconds

New to Psychology of Marketing? Join us for free 🤝


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PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECT

Hindsight bias

“I told you!”

“I knew that would happen!”

Ever heard people say things like this right after something remarkable happened?

We humans have the tendency to convince ourselves that we accurately predicted an event… but only after the event occurs.

It’s a systematic error called hindsight bias, or the “I-knew-it-all-along” effect, and it affects how we view the past.

… But also how we view the future: We convince ourselves that we knew what was going to happen, and then we start to think that we can predict other events.

This can lead to overconfidence, which often leads to unnecessary risks and poor decisions.

Here’s an obvious example: Before going out of business, 77.3% of entrepreneurs believed that their startup would become a success.

However, after the startup failed, only 58% said they had originally believed their startup would be a success.

There are two reasons we fall for this bias:

  • We need a predictable world. Our brain doesn’t like unexpected outcomes because they trigger stress and negative emotions.
  • We want to protect our ego. Research shows that when the results of people’s own choices were positive, decision-makers showed hindsight bias (“I knew I would succeed”). When the results were negative, decision-makers did not show hindsight bias.

Leveraging hindsight bias can help marketers create messages that resonate with their audience… but also create pleasant post-purchase emotions that keep customers coming back and incentivize word-of-mouth.

Let’s see how that might look in practice…

Three tactics for using hindsight bias

1/ Educate to reduce regret

For high-priced and high-commitment purchases, offer resources that help potential customers make informed decisions.

By providing clear information, you can reduce the risk of buyer’s regret.

Later, when they reflect on their purchase, their hindsight bias will work in your favour. They’ll be more inclined to think, “I knew I made the right choice,” which can lead to positive word-of-mouth and increased brand loyalty.

2/ Your product performance will impact hindsight expectations

Before buying your product, consumers will predict the performance of your product. But after experiencing the product, their hindsight expectations can be distorted by the product’s performance.

Generally speaking, expectations of consumers will be higher when the satisfaction is high, and lower when the product quality is poor.

… Regardless of their initial foresight before buying the product.

Lesson? Don’t be too humble.

If you usually tone down your promises to avoid disappointing customers, try making bigger claims.

Users will adjust the expectations they had about your product before buying based on the experience they get.

Remember, though: “Don’t be too humble” does not mean you’re allowed to scam people.

3/ Reinforce their past hindsight predictions with customers’ stories

Chances are, your customers tried other solutions before yours.

And if they’re still looking for a solution like yours, they have probably been disappointed in the past.

Use testimonial stories to remind them of past painful situations where they wished they acted differently or wished they acted sooner so you can motivate them to buy your product now.


CLICKWORTHY

🤓 Marketers at HubSpot, Salesforce, Klaviyo and 57,000 more professionals read Stacked Marketer every weekday to stay on top of digital marketing changes and updates and receive new, actionable tips to grow their businesses. Subscribe for free.*

💡Marketing becomes a lot easier when you steal ideas from successful brands. Get proven tactics and inspiring examples every Saturday when you subscribe to Tactics by Stacked Marketer for free.*

💵 First TikTok, now Meta. Social media platforms are evaluating ad-free plans where users pay to get an ad-free experience. TikTok may cost just $5, while Meta is considering $17/month for Facebook and Instagram.

📧 Less spam, safer inboxes. Starting in 2024, a new Google policy will require all users who send more than 5,000 emails per day to comply with its new rules. And Google won’t deliver your emails unless you validate your profile.

🤝 Big news of a big partnership with big ambitions. Google and X (Twitter) struck a deal that allows Google Display Network advertisers to show ads on X’s feed. A monetization opportunity for X. And extra eyeballs for Google advertisers. Sweet, isn’t it?

*This is a sponsored post.

ICYMI, last week we looked at The Power of Incentives.

The “Incentives” Crew.


Delivered fresh every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, our carefully curated digital marketing news, tech, and actionable advice can be consumed in 7 minutes or less.

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