Black Friday is next month. May the odds and the CPCs be ever in your favor.

But will they?

The prize pool is growing: NRF’s annual holiday forecast predicts US retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, faster than last year’s 3.1%.

Shoppers will still mind their budgets, though. NRF expects inflation and rising gas prices to hit income groups differently, so plan offers at every price point.

Flat CPCs had a good run: Google Search CPC growth jumped from 1% in Q2 to 4% in Q3, per Tinuiti’s Digital Ads Benchmark Report.

Amazon’s retreat from US Google Shopping auctions in July 2025 kept CPCs flat for a year. Then other ecommerce giants moved in.

Now everyone else bids higher to hold impression share, so budget for pricier clicks this BFCM.

Social platforms expect a bonanza: TikTok’s new holiday shopping data shows TikTok Shop, its in-app store, passed $500 million in sales over BFCM 2025.

LIVE Shopping, TikTok’s livestream selling format, more than doubled its US sales year over year in the first half of 2026.

TikTok expects it to play an even bigger role this season. Selling there? Plan your BFCM livestreams now.

In a convenient timing, bots get a checkbox, too: Shopify’s Checkout MCP and Cart MCP let AI agents fill carts and check out on Shopify stores.

Now shoppers buying through an agent can:

• Opt in to your email or SMS marketing
• Make the same privacy choices as in your own checkout

You get those choices with the order, so AI agent sales can grow your lists too. The catch: only agents that adopt the update pass them along.

Let the bidding games begin.