The Overconfidence effect
Why people overestimate their abilities and judgment, and how to use the overconfidence effect to boost customer action and sales.
In this issue
Hey 👋 The Crew here.
It’s May.
And you know what? We love May.
It’s like the year’s gentle exhale. Days linger for longer, blossoms blush, and the world feels freshly written.
Just like this newsletter.
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Ever heard of Johnny Bravo?
He was a muscular cartoon character from the late 90s, and famous for his over-the-top confidence and huge ego.
But what makes him iconic isn’t his confidence. It’s his comic failures and cluelessness, of which come from believing himself to be better than he is.
Audiences love him because we all have a bit of Johnny Bravo in us.
Don’t believe us? Well, here are some examples that might change your perspective:
- If you ever wanted to invest, say, in crypto during a bull run.
- If you ever wanted to test your knowledge in a quiz.
- If you’ve ever said you’re “99% sure” only to be proven wrong.
… Then yes, at some point, you’ve fallen for the Overconfidence effect.
There are extensive scientific studies that confirm this.
For example, a pair of researchers in 1977 found participants lost money when they gambled on answers they rated with almost 100% confidence.
Turns out, they were incorrect on 12% of the questions they were 100% confident on.
In other words, yes, the Overconfidence effect is real. We tend to have higher confidence in the accuracy and soundness of our judgments, abilities, or knowledge than we should.
Sometimes, overconfidence can lead to bad consequences. But other times, it can just help you sell more stuff.
Let’s focus on the “sell more stuff” part.
Three ways to leverage the Overconfidence effect
Make your customer confident each step of the way
People tend to trust their own judgement. Even if it’s a bit shaky.
Instead of suggesting or encouraging any doubt, create quizzes, calculators, or guides that affirm their instincts.
Guess who’s the master of this? Yep, Duolingo.
One feature from Duolingo’s early days “tested you” to assess your language and maybe skip a few levels.

The truth: Duolingo’s test doesn’t challenge you.
It simply affirms your skills while nudging you to start learning. It makes you think you already know enough, sending you off on a confidence-boosting journey.
How you can leverage this: Guide your customers through quick, non-intimidating assessments, whether it’s a product quiz, a “find your perfect fit” tool, or an interactive guide.
If you frame it as something they already know or feel like they are close to a solution, you’ll make customers feel confident about moving forward and more likely to trust you.
Wrap confidence in positive affirmations
To tell you a secret: Super confident people are often trigger-friendly.
In other words, if you make them really confident, you’ll ease their purchase decisions.
Brands understand this, so they hype up their audiences’ boldness, self-belief, and action without overthinking. All traits that can look like, or encourage overconfidence.
And who does it better than Nike?

This entire message encourages you to act confidently and decisively, even if doubt or fear might hold you back. It also frames impulsive confidence as a virtue.
Key point: While we often associate overconfidence with misjudgment of true ability, Nike celebrates the positive emotional side of this. The feeling you can take on anything.
… Even if, realistically, you might fail sometimes.
Sometimes, an overly confident message can backfire
Psychologists Fischoff and Lichtenstein found that when people are about 50% accurate in their guesses, they feel way more confident than they should.
Take flipping a coin, for instance.
But as people get better at something and as their confidence and skills start matching up, this overconfidence diminishes.
Once they get really good—over 80% accurate—they even start doubting themselves a little.
So if people think they know something well when in fact they don’t, they might be overconfident.
You can leverage this by targeting beginner users with very broad, confident messaging, like Canva does:

The message, the choices… everything makes new users feel capable of diving in.
But as users become more experienced, Canva introduces advanced tutorials, professional templates, and expert-level tips with a tone catered to a more skilled crowd.
Smart, huh?
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ECOMMERCE: It’s happening. ChatGPT’s search capabilities are being updated to make it more shopping-friendly. New features include product cards with images, prices, star ratings, organic, ad-free recommendations, up-to-date prices, and more. Time to optimize for AI search.
META:Is CapCut getting a formidable rival? Meta’s new video editor app, Edits, has racked up 7.6M downloads in just a few days—from India, Brazil, and the US. But is it better? Well, that’s up to you to decide.
REDDIT: AI or humans—who convinces better? A controversial study from the University of Zurich suggests it might be AI. Researchers deployed AI bots on Reddit to successfully change users’ minds. Users claim they feel manipulated, but the results are interesting. Or concerning.
BUSINESS: In 2020 there were 200,000 digital creator jobs in the US. In 2024, there were 1.5M. That’s an incredible jump—a 7.5x jump to be precise. If you’re looking for your next job—or your next creative partner—the opportunities are out there.
ICYMI, last time we looked at the Specialist effect.
The “Overconfident” Crew
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