The Ambiguity Effect
People prefer options with known outcomes over uncertain ones, and how to use the ambiguity effect to increase conversions and sales.
In this issue
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Imagine you’re choosing between these two options:
- An investment fund with a 5% historical annual return.
- A new crypto token with unknown future returns.
Most people choose the first option, simply because they understand the specific risk involved—even if the second option could yield higher returns in the future.
And this applies not only to investment decisions, but to all the life decisions we make.
When you’re hungry and choosing a place to eat, you’ll favor a familiar restaurant with a tried and tested menu over a new, unknown place.
We call this the ambiguity effect—the cognitive bias where people avoid options with unknown probabilities and make choices with clear, known outcomes.
Fun fact: A group of researchers studied this effect in 1998—using Snickers bars.
They put a display in a grocery store saying “Snickers bars, buy them for your freezer.” But after a while, they changed the sign to say “Snickers bars, buy 18 for your freezer.”
The result? Snickers sales increased by 38%—simply by replacing the vague word with an arbitrary number. Nice, right?
And yes, this is something you can do to boost your sales as well. Let’s see how.
Three ways to leverage the Ambiguity effect
Focus on specifics
Uncertainty doesn’t sell.
Unless it’s the core value proposition—like, say, you’re producing a mystery box office hit. Or you’re a casino owner.
But in most industries and markets, you want to provide comprehensive product specifications, pricing, and features—all to eliminate any uncertainty.
Take a look at Amazon, for example. Their product pages are on-point.
Not only do they contain all the necessary specifications and features—you also get an accurate calculation of your shipping fees and total fees… making the decision easier.

So when you’re trying to improve conversion rates, remember—those little details can make all the difference.
Reduce risks to zero—or close to it
Remember, even the slightest sense of uncertainty can push your customers away from you and toward more familiar alternatives.
So the best way to mitigate ambiguity is to minimize risk.
Take Zappos, for example. They understood early on that people hesitate to buy shoes online because of fit and comfort concerns.
So, they offered an exceptional return policy: Free returns, no questions asked, for up to a year.
This eliminated a key risk and made customers feel confident in their purchases, which helped Zappos grow into a billion-dollar business.

Here’s how you can replicate this and other customer-first strategies of risk avoidance:
- Offer free trials, consultations, or returns—depending on what you’re selling.
- Display transparent customer reviews, especially those that highlight the downsides of your product.
- Deliver detailed timelines and expectations.
- Provide responsive and effective customer support.
All this will help your customers reduce the perceived risk of trying out something new.
Ramp up your content machine
Nowadays, your customers want to make quick and effortless decisions.
How can you help?
Build up their knowledge of your brand in advance so when you offer them a choice—for example, via a highly-targeted ad—they already have their mind set on buying.
The best way to do this is by clever content marketing. Drip feed relevant, specific information about your product through multiple channels to help your customers understand your products better.
Many brands dedicate a good portion of their marketing budgets to educational content.
For example, a brand called Waterbox Aquariums sells—you’ve guessed it—aquariums.
And it has a channel dedicated to the hobby where it answers questions, hosts experts, and occasionally pitches its products:

This is even more important if you’re a new brand. New products and companies face greater challenges exactly due to the ambiguity effect.
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META: Facebook is removing its fact-checking program and opting for a Community Notes approach—yep, like X. Basically that means users will have a greater role in calling out problematic content. Good decision? You tell us.
TIKTOK: Are you worried that you’ll lose your ad money if TikTok is banned mid-campaign? You shouldn’t, according to the platform itself. Apparently, TikTok promised advertisers that down payments on ads will be returned if the app is banned. Interesting…
AI MARKETING: New year, new ad placement. Perplexity—one of the biggest AI-powered search engines—is now showing “sponsored” articles among commonly asked questions. Is this a glimpse of new AI-search advertising?
SOCIAL MEDIA: Is jumping on a trend embarrassing? Not as long as you do it in a day or two. Sprout Social found that 40% of consumers think it’s cool when brands participate in trends, as long as they’re relevant to the brand. At least, Gen Z thinks so, anyway.
ICYMI, last time we looked at the All-natural effect.
The “super specific” Crew
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