Future Lock-In
Why people commit to future actions more easily than present ones and how to use pre-commitment strategies in your marketing campaigns.
In this issue
Hey 👋 The Crew here.
We were thinking… what if your cat or your dog suddenly turned into a marketer.
- A cat would ignore your brief, disappear for two days, then deliver something brilliant at 3 AM that works perfectly.
- A dog would be all-in on every campaign, over-caffeinated at every meeting, and probably too excited about that new CRM integration.
Both get results, just… very differently.
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Easy mode: You promise to start a diet “next Monday.”
Impossible mode: You put down a creamy donut you’re eating and start a diet right now.
This hits close to home, doesn’t it? That’s because there is a huge gap between what we want for our future selves and what we are willing to do today.
Science calls this Future Lock-In, or pre-commitment.
It is closely tied to hyperbolic discounting. We value immediate rewards (sweet donut) much more than future rewards (health).
However, research shows we view our “future self” almost like a stranger. Ideally, a stranger who is smarter, healthier, and more responsible than we are currently.
Nobel laureates Richard Thaler and Shlomo Benartzi proved this with their “Save More Tomorrow” research.
They found people refused to save money now.
But, they happily committed to saving a portion of future pay raises.
Why? Because the pain of losing money was pushed to the future, while the “virtuous” feeling happened immediately.
Marketers can use this gap. You can get customers to agree to a commitment today, as long as the “pain” such as payment or effort happens later. Let’s see how.
Three ways to leverage Future Lock-In
Push the payment and the pain away
If there’s a thing that’s in common with most humans, it’s that we hate parting money.
It is arguably the biggest friction point in sales. But if you separate the decision to buy from the pain of paying, conversion rates soar.
If this sounds like something Buy now, pay later (BNPL) can solve… Well, you’re right.
You order something, like a 3D printer now. You feel the dopamine hit of shopping.
But you don’t pay a dime until later, delaying it for your future self. Your more secure financial self, to be precise.
By the time the bill comes, the item is already part of your life. In this case, it might even start paying off some of that money.
The Endowment Effect has also already kicked in.
Offer “Virtuous” Subscription Delays
Selling a product that requires effort, like vitamins, healthy food, or educational tools?
Allow users to commit now for a start date in the future. HelloFresh and other meal prep services leverage this.
You aren’t ordering dinner for tonight when you’re tired and just want a good old Dominos. You are ordering dinner for next week.
Your “future self” next week is a person who cooks healthy meals and by locking in that order now, you bypass the immediate desire for junk food.
Hello Fresh and similar brands understand that customers will feel good about the decision immediately, even though the execution will happen later.
Use Pre-Commitment for Upgrades
Don’t ask a customer to upgrade their plan today if they don’t need it yet. Ask them to agree to an auto-upgrade once they hit a certain milestone.
For instance, the tool we used to send this email does this.
It doesn’t force us to predict how many subscribers we’re expecting, but they will charge more as soon as we pass a certain subscriber threshold.
They effectively say, “Start small, and we will automatically adjust if you grow.”
Slack does the same with their seating plan, for instance. You are pre-committing to paying more in the future, conditional on your success.
All this removes the friction of a heavy upfront negotiation.
You lock in the vendor relationship now, and the price increase is a problem for “future you.”
But even then, in the future you won’t be devastated, as it means your business is growing. And the price just follows that growth. Win-win.
AI EDUCATION: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Midjourney… So many names, but what’s actually useful for you in your work? There’s a newsletter called The Deep View that exists to sift through all the noise and get you up to speed on what’s actionable with AI products, and it’s free. Join 512,000+ subscribers with one click and let AI empower you.*
AI TACTICS: Struggling to find a practical use for AI in your marketing work? No worries. Every Saturday, we will send you a free newsletter to sharpen your marketing skills and get more wins for yourself and your clients, including the latest AI use cases with actual examples and prompts you can just swipe. Subscribe for free.*
MARKETING:Boomers are online, but are they buying from you?If they aren’t, and you want them to, you might want to read this data-driven report that looks into the shopping habits of the older generation. Spoiler alert: they can set up their own Facebook account now.
SNAPCHAT: Now, what about the youngsters? Snap has dived deep into how Gen Z shops during the holiday season and beyond and found that Zoomers view shopping as a journey and not just transaction. So don’t push them for a hard sell, but try to inspire them instead.
AMAZON: Careful. Black Friday impersonation scams are targeting personal and financial data. Over 19k fake domains mimicking major retailers were registered recently and Amazon is urging shoppers to be extra vigilant. It’s worth doing the same to keep your brand reputation clean over the busy weekend.
GOOGLE ADS: Last week, Google launched Nano Banana Pro. The tool is built into Google Ads and after some testing, the verdict is out. Apparently, the tool is great for seasonal transformations, but not that good with logos and test overlays. What’s your experience?
ICYMI, last time we looked at the Moral Licensing.
The “Future us” Crew
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