Hot Hand Effect
Why winning streaks feel unstoppable even when they're random, and how to use the hot hand effect in your marketing.
In this issue
Hey 👋 The Crew here.
Ever notice how dogs start acting like their owners?
We’re convinced our dogs have picked up our marketing habits. Now when we say “sit,” they demand to see the ROI first… and we’ve run out of treats.
Reading time: 4 minutes, 52 seconds
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Ever watched a basketball player sink three shots in a row?
It feels like they’re unstoppable. Like anytime they take a shot, that ball goes in. And it doesn’t seem random at all.
But guess what? It is random. And that feeling is just your mind doing stuff again.
We see a “hot streak” and our brains mistake this random clustering for a genuine pattern. We start believing future success is more likely.
That’s the Hot Hand Effect, a concept famously studied in 1985 by researchers Gilovich, Tversky, and Vallone.
They analyzed tons of basketball shooting data and concluded that the “hot hand” was mostly a cognitive illusion.
Turns out a player’s chance of making the next shot is statistically independent of whether they made the last one, even when it looks like they’re on fire.
But this phenomenon happens everywhere, not just in sports:
- In investing, there’s always that stock that keeps winning, until it doesn’t.
- In gambling, a slot machine might feel “hot” before you lose everything.
- Even in business, a few good months can trick you into thinking you’re great.
What marketers can do: Create the perception of a winning streak to build momentum.
… And pull customers in.
Three ways to leverage the Hot Hand Effect
Show real time momentum
People love to back a winner.
Showcasing a “streak” makes a product feel like a sure bet and creates social proof momentum.
Many brands from different industries do this. Go to an e-commerce website and you might see “sold 50 in the last hour” or “someone from New York just bought it,” or similar.
A while ago, if you wanted to book a property on Booking, you would have seen something like “23 people looking at this property” or “booked 3 times in the last 24 hours.”
This repeated, recent success triggers our Hot Hand effect.
It’s a great way to show that a product or service is “hot right now.”
… And yes, we also started singing that DJ Fresh and Rita Ora song while writing that last part.
Bump recent positive reviews
A single good review is nice. But admit it, you’re subconsciously looking for social proof—or streaks.
When you want to book a restaurant, you’ll go to “recent reviews” to see if the latest impressions are positive. No matter the rating.
And if the “streak” is hot, you can’t possibly have a bad experience, right?
Amazon’s “Most recent reviews” filter is a perfect tool for this.
When a customer sees five 5-star reviews all from the last 48 hours, they don’t see five independent opinions. They see one “hot” product that everyone suddenly loves.
What you can do: Actively push for reviews in concentrated bursts and then feature these recent “wins” prominently. Email, social media, or other forms of content.
If your product is succeeding now, it makes new buyers feel confident they will also succeed with it.
Create urgency with “streaky” copy
The best way to build engagement and loyalty? Make the user feel like they are on a hot streak.
Look at Duolingo’s Streak feature. Maintaining a streak of daily lessons becomes the primary motivation. Users aren’t just learning; they’re “on fire.”
And breaking the streak feels like a failure. That’s the Hot Hand Effect in a nutshell.
What if you’re not Duolingo? This works for anything. Loyalty programs where you subscribe for a few consecutive months to win a discount, fitness apps, learning platforms, and more.
Even products like Kindle have a reading streak that keep you on the platform:
You don’t want to break this streak. So you’ll read more and… buy more books. Smart, right?
It becomes more than a prize. It becomes a behavior, a habit, and ultimately, a repeat purchase.
And isn’t that what all marketers want?
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ICYMI, last time we looked at the Cocktail Party Effect.
The “On Fire” Crew
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