What can you expect from Q4 in 2025?

Not a lot of things in life are certain. 

But, of course, one that is certain is Q4 being a make-or-break season for many CMOs, agencies, and retailers. 

And like every year, we’ve looked into some data that should help us get a better picture of how this year’s final quarter might look like. 

Teaser: shoppers are more cautious, AI is crashing the party, and BFCM fatigue is real. 

Still, there’s positives to extract which might help you have the best holiday sales period yet. If you adapt well. So let’s see what the data says.

Back-to-school spending is decreasing

Pencils down, wallets out.

Back-to-school season often acts as a pop quiz for consumer spending habits before the big Q4 exam. And this year, it looks like households are studying their budgets a little harder…

After a peak in 2023 where households planned to spend an average of $890.07, the numbers are trending slightly downward. Projections for 2025 sit at $858.07. 

While this is still historically high compared to the last two decades, the dip is what’s interesting. We’re not looking at a crash, but some belt-tightening is definitely happening.

Shoppers are still spending, but they might be hunting for value more aggressively. This trend suggests that the upcoming season might be more about calculated purchases.

What we think: Start framing your Q4 offers around value now. 

Emphasize bundle deals, “buy now, pay later” options, and free shipping to appeal to shoppers who are already looking for ways to make their money go further.

How much did eCom brands sell during Q4 of 2024? 

Like bears bulking up for winter, e-commerce brands live for the Q4 feast. 

An analysis of last year’s sales shows exactly when and how they packed on the revenue, and—spoiler alert—it involved a feeding frenzy of discounts:

As you could already guess, Q4 is king. 

November was the star performer, gobbling up 11.9% of the entire year’s Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), with December close behind at 10.9%. 

So, what lit the fuse in November? Discounts.

The average discount rate, which hovers around 9-11% for most of the year, skyrocketed to a whopping 19.1% in November. This shows BFCM is a primary Q4 success engine. 

Shoppers were trained to wait for the deepest price cuts, and they pounced when they arrived. This shows that BFCM is less a shopping holiday and more an economic stimulus event for e-commerce.

What’s your Q4 strategy? Plan a tiered approach. 

Build buzz in October, launch your main event for BFCM in November, and capture last-minute shoppers with slightly lower, but still attractive, deals in December.

Will tariffs impact shopping decisions?

Uh-oh. 

New data suggests consumers are connecting the dots between tariffs and their wallets:

When it comes to tariffs influencing purchases, very few consumers are on the fence. Only 23% of shoppers say that tariffs have no impact on their decisions at all.

77% feel the influence to varying degrees:

• 33% say tariffs influence them “a little.”
• 27% feel a “moderate” influence.
• 17% are “significantly” influenced.

The mere mention of tariffs can trigger price sensitivity and prompt them to reconsider a purchase or look for alternatives. It’s like an invisible force nudging consumers

Transparency and clear value propositions are your best defense against this uncertainty..

If your supply chain is affected by tariffs, get ahead of the narrative. Frame your pricing around quality and durability.

Alternatively, highlight locally sourced products in your marketing to turn a potential vulnerability into a competitive advantage.

Is BFCM still attractive as in previous years?

Did everyone just get tired of the same old song? 

For a growing number of consumers, the magic of the year’s biggest shopping weekend is starting to feel less compelling and more… cliché:

While the split was nearly even in 2022, the sentiment has soured since. 

By 2024, a staggering 68% of consumers said BFCM was no longer compelling, with only 32% still finding it attractive. The projection for 2025 shows a tiny rebound to 34% “Yes,” but the overall deal fatigue is undeniable. 

The Crew’s opinion: The BFCM “event” is losing its scarcity value. Consumers are desensitized to endless discounts, so brands can no longer win on price alone. 

To stand out, the experience and the offer itself must feel genuinely unique.

You might want to reinvent your offer. 

Instead of a simple 25% off, create exclusive product bundles, offer a high-value gift with purchase, or provide early access to your most loyal customers. 

Make it an event they want to be a part of.

Cyber Monday is the most profitable holiday day

Black Friday gets all the glory with scenes of crowded stores, but its digital-native sibling is the one quietly raking in the most cash:

When you slice the holiday revenue pie, one piece is significantly larger than the rest. Cyber Monday stands tall with $13.3B in revenue, comfortably beating out its competitors.

Even last year, we’ve mentioned it. If you’re primarily e-commerce,Cyber Monday is your day. 

This is where considered, high-value purchases happen after the initial impulse-buy frenzy of the weekend has settled down.

The Crew’s advice: Allocate a dedicated budget and create unique offers specifically for Cyber Monday.

 Promote these as “online exclusives” to build anticipation and capture shoppers who may have browsed but not bought over the Black Friday weekend.

Millennials and Gen Z will shop during Cyber Monday

And while we’re on the subject of Cyber Monday, look who’s fueling its multi-billion dollar dominance:

A massive 74% of Millennials and 72% of Gen Z plan to shop on this day and their participation is what turns the day from a big sale into a record-breaking event.

Gen X isn’t far behind, with a solid 60% joining in on the deals. The real drop-off comes with Baby Boomers, where only 35% plan to make a purchase.

The message is clear: Cyber Monday belongs to the digitally native. For brands targeting younger demographics, this day is your grand finale.

The overwhelming intent from Millennials and Gen Z means your creative, messaging, and channel strategy must be perfectly tuned to their tastes.

Actionable Tip: Go all-in on mobile-first channels. Use TikTok and Instagram to showcase your deals in action, and leverage SMS for last-minute reminders.

Weave in themes that resonate with younger shoppers, like authenticity or sustainability, alongside your promotions.

Where do users find their Black Friday products?

Fun fact: it seems the best source for gift ideas is still the one that doesn’t require a login.

Check out the last year’s data:

When it comes to finding the perfect gift, good old-fashioned word-of-mouth is still undefeated. A whopping 61% of gift buyers get ideas from friends and family.

• Search engines are a close second: 53% of shoppers turn to Google and other search engines, making a strong SEO and SEM strategy non-negotiable for the holiday season. 
• Social media is a discovery hub: Instagram (23%) and Facebook (22%) lead the social pack, with TikTok and Pinterest tied at 18%.
• AI is the new kid on the block: ChatGPT and similar AI tools are already influencing 9% of gift buyers. 

The Crew’s Take: Trust is the ultimate currency. Shoppers rely on sources they trust—friends, family, and the search engines they use daily. 

The rise of AI as a source shows a growing trust in technology for personalized recommendations.

Actionable tip: Encourage user-generated content and reviews, or even referral discounts and gifts to fuel word-of-mouth marketing.

There’s also a case to double down on your holiday search campaigns to capture high-intent buyers. Especially with AI tools entering the fray and integrating checkout.

Users tend to flock to AI for BFCM research

Move over, elves. Santa’s got a new little helper.

And it’s powered by algorithms…

While shoppers still value a personal touch, a surprising number are letting AI take the reins on their holiday research.

57% will simply ask people what they want, but a very close 54% are already using AI for support in their gift-finding process. A massive shift in approach.

Meanwhile, traditional methods like browsing offers and sales (46%) and looking for specific products already on a list (33%) remain popular. 

Can AI help cut through holiday noise? Consumers are outsourcing the heavy lifting of sifting through endless options and are using AI to get personalized suggestions. 

But shoppers tend to reject AI for a variety of reasons…

So AI is popular, yes. But there’s a big catch.

 It seems you can’t just code the perfect gift-giving experience… yet. 

The biggest hurdle for AI adoption in gifting is the human element. Over half of consumers (52%) reject AI because they prefer to personalize the experience themselves. 

Other major concerns holding shoppers back include:

• A fundamental lack of trust in AI (27%).
• The belief that AI suggestions are too generic to be helpful (20%).
• Fears that the answers would be biased or brand-sponsored (15%). 

So while there’s a lot of AI usage among holiday shoppers, they still see AI as a tool for efficiency and not emotion. 

When it comes to a personal act like gifting, people don’t want to feel like they’re following an algorithm. They want to feel in control and that they are making a thoughtful choice. 

The approach? If you integrate an AI chatbot or a similar helper to your store, frame it as a creative partner instead of a decision-maker.

Use language like “Get inspired” or “Find a starting point” to empower users, and ensure the final decision and personalization feel entirely their own.

Which devices are most popular for BFCM shopping?

During the BFCM shopping season, every device plays a role.

The desktop computer is still the king of the checkout, with 69% of shoppers making holiday purchases on their laptop or computer. 

However, mobile is a powerful force, split between mobile apps (43%) and mobile web browsers (37%). 

Discovery can happen on the go, but many still prefer a large screen for the final purchase.

The massive influence of social media: Only 18% of general purchases happen directly on social media. 

Yet, 52% of users making an online holiday gift purchase will do so via Instagram, and 35% of Gen Z shoppers are likely to buy directly from social media.

It’s cross-device: Shoppers browse on their phones, but often head to a desktop to finalize the purchase where comparing and checking out feels easier.

What can you do: Optimize for a seamless multi-device experience. Ensure your mobile site is fast, your social checkout is frictionless, and that carts sync across devices so customers can pick up right where they left off.

What influences holiday shopping?

What gets shoppers to finally click that “buy” button during the holidays? 

It’s not just the festive spirit and a glass of eggnog. The data shows that consumers are driven by a powerful combination of value and convenience.

Unsurprisingly, price is the biggest motivator. 

A majority of shoppers (55%) are influenced by discounts, coupons, and promotions. In a season defined by spending, a good deal is simply irresistible.

But it’s not all about the money: Convenience is a close second, with 43% of consumers swayed by fast shipping or easy curbside pickup options

After that, trust signals like product reviews (35%) and perks from loyalty programs (32%) play a huge role in sealing the deal. Saving time and reducing risk are crucial factors.

Holiday shoppers are on a mission: They have a list, a budget, and a deadline. Brands that win are those that make it easy to get the best value with the least amount of friction.

Actionable tip: Lead with your strongest offers and be loud about them. 

But don’t stop there. Guarantee delivery dates, prominently display positive customer reviews on product pages, and offer flexible shipping and pickup options.

Holiday shopping is becoming multichannel

Question: Is the modern shopper online or in-store?

The answer is a resounding “yes.” For both. The line between digital and physical shopping has all but vanished. Now, i’s a fluid journey where every channel matter:

The data shows that shoppers are constantly blending their online and offline experiences. 

For example, 40% of consumers use their phones in-store to look up prices or reviews, a practice known as “showrooming.” 

Conversely, 38% will look at a product online and then head to a physical store to buy it.

Strategic patience is also part of the game, with 37% of shoppers adding an item to their list only to buy it later when it goes on sale.

 Furthermore, 25% embrace click-and-collect, buying online to pick up their items in-store. 

The customer journey is no longer a straight line. Shoppers use every tool at their disposal, digital and physical, to find the best product, information, and price.

Actionable tip: Create a unified commerce experience. Ensure your online promotions are honored in-store if you have one and equip staff with devices to access online inventory.

Finally, offer flexible fulfillment options that cater to both online and offline shoppers.

How to win Q4? Don’t be cheap, be smart.

This year’s holiday season demands a distinct approach. Price alone won’t cut it anymore, if you believe the data.

Shoppers expect seamless experiences across every touchpoint and authentic value beyond discounts. Also, they’d expect convenience to shop however they want.

What can you do? Serve compelling offers, reduce friction, and meet customers on their preferred channels. It would help if you’d turn promotional events into experiences worth participating in.

And keep reading Stacked Marketer for all recent news and data. But you already know that.