What can last year’s Cyber Week data tell us about 2024 sales?

If you’re serious about your Q4 sales, your ad factory is already in full swing.

It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. Brands start their campaigns earlier, customers start their shopping season earlier. And the earlier they shop, the earlier brands start. 

Consequently, shopping fever defied the expectations of the last few years, with last year once again recording big sales despite all the uncertainty.

But with the uncertainty still looming over, there’s a legitimate question—will this year be the same?

We’ve dug through some data from last year’s Black Friday-Cyber Monday (BFCM) and tried to reach some conclusions. We want you to follow us—and tell us what you think in the end. 

Let’s start.

Cyber Week broke records in 2023, or did it?

Despite all the talk of tight spending and careful customers… Last year was record-breaking.

Customers weren’t afraid to splash the cash, spending $38B during Cyber Week. Let’s have a look:

We see here that’s a $3B jump from 2022 to 2023—which painted quite a successful picture. So shoppers spent a lot. 

But what about sellers? Did they sell a lot?

Some did. But if you noticed that you’ve just sold the same but for increased prices—you’re not alone. Adjusted for inflation, a lot of ecommerce businesses have seen stagnation.

You can read more about it in one of our earlier reports. But it is definitely something to keep in mind this year as well. You’ll also see why soon.

Consumers have shown that they won’t slow down with their shopping:

Black Friday has shown the biggest spike year-over-year, with shoppers being more open to spending on the day—which correlates with another record-breaking year in 2024.

It remains to be seen if the sentiment stays for this year. 

But in a report from a few weeks ago, we noticed that back-to-school shopping—which announces the Q4 spending—slowed down a lot compared to a spike last year.

It will be interesting to see if Black Friday will suffer the same fate given the circumstances.

Shoppers are expected to flock to online stores

We all remember viral videos of people fighting—literally, fist fighting—to get their hands on the last juicy Black Friday deal. 

Those videos, however, are becoming a relic of the past. 

There’s a simple reason for this—you can’t do this online. And shoppers have changed their in-person experience for online deal-hunting:

It appears that only 27% of US shoppers prefer in-store shopping.

On the other hand, around 67% will do their Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping online. 

For you, this probably means business as usual. Just make sure you set up your online store for success.

This means optimizing your store for mobile, making sure that the page loads quickly—since attention is even weaker during big sales events—offers are visible on the landing pages, and similar.

Cyber Monday is bigger than Black Friday

…in cyberspace, at least.

If you’ve looked at the previous charts carefully, you have probably figured it out. 

But it seems like Cyber Monday is the biggest revenue day. And here’s last year’s data that confirms it:

According to Adobe analytics, Cyber Monday 2023 was “the biggest online shopping day ever”—which also saw a record high usage of Buy now, pay later (BNPL) services.

This is because, unilike Black Friday, Cyber Monday is made up exclusively of online deals. 

And while a portion of shoppers will spend their weekend outside bargain hunting for Black Friday—all Cyber Monday shopping happens indoors. 

What does it mean: If you are in e-commerce, don’t neglect Cyber Monday. In fact, try to think of that day as a separate sales day. 

Make special Cyber Monday discounts and promotions. Shoot a special email blast just for Cyber Monday, which might be a deal different to Black Friday.  

Overall, make the most out of Cyber Monday. Because shoppers will.

These products are most likely to sell…

We just know that some items sell better than others during the big sales events.

And when you ask shoppers, you can see exactly what these products are.

Here’s an overview:

As you see, clothing and accessories and electronics are the items to look for during this time—the former more popular among females, while the latter among male audience.

Likewise, women will also try to snap a good discount on health and beauty, while everyone would love a nice household appliance at a discounted price, right?

If you’re in these industries, these can be both good and bad. Bad, because shoppers will be on extra alert for good offers and discounts in an already competitive market.

So you’ll have to compete for the eyeballs of your shoppers with ads but also will need to price match with competitors. 

Headache, yeah.

But is the consumer perception of Cyber Week changing? 

Nowadays, the question is more than “will they shop?”  

The better question is “how will they shop?” 

There’s something we’ll call the post-shopping clarity.

And that is the regret you feel after you’ve thrown the money on various Cyber Week discounts. 

Familiar? Here’s what the data says:

Among the youngest working age generation, the aftershop sentiment is 60-40 in favor of regret. That’s a lot.

This tells us that—despite being impulse spenders—Zoomers have been reflecting on their Cyber Week spending this past year. And may be more cautious this year.

Unlike Zoomers, millennials and Gen X still love getting the best bang for their buck. While if you sell to boomers—who are also the current wealthiest generation—you might see gains.

The majority has zero regrets when it comes to spending. No surprises, eh?

But there’s also been another customer shift since last year. An increasing feeling that Black Friday sales are just not worth the hassle.

Check it out:

It looks like 34% of all recipients think Black Friday sales aren’t always worth the hassle.

One fifth of them think retailers inflate prices and then discount them to make it seem like an offer—while 14% don’t find their items on sale at all.

What you can do: Be transparent, honest, and provide real discounts. 

And if you’re promoting deals, make sure you’re including all your essential or most-wanted items in those deals. You’ll make your customers happy and more likely to buy.

Are smaller retailers putting less effort into BFCM? 

High ad costs, competition, mega retailers…

All this makes Q4 prep a hassle—and a costly one. But are smaller retailers giving up on Black Friday and other mega sales deals?

Let’s see:

So it appears that not even retailers are sure of the best approach.

While almost all retailers agree or somewhat agree that these events are a powerful source of revenue, the majority also think they don’t generate corresponding profits.

In other words—brands have tons of expenses to sell more which can eventually even out.

The opinion that big sales days are made for mega retailers doesn’t help—nor the sentiment that consumers can get good deals at any time. 

…Which they are aware of, as we mentioned before.

Almost 70% of all retailers are “moving away from mega events” to focus on targeted value offers and niche events. 

However, the appeal of Cyber Week is just too big. 

The consumers are programmed to spend and you can’t neglect other measurable gains: 

• You acquire new customers at a higher rate
• You test significantly more campaigns and ad channels
• You test out the true market potential of your brand
• You’re investing more in brand awareness

The upsides of Q4 are just too big to neglect. 

But with the rising challenges, you’ll have to act and maybe—like your peers—consider shifting some of your focus to different offers—or spreading the effort throughout the year.

In the end, it’s back to black

Last year’s data shows that Cyber Week sales remained strong. Against all odds.

However, inflation, shifting consumer sentiments, and evolving shopping behaviors mean brands need to innovate. 

Cyber Week still holds massive potential—probably the most industry-wide—but retailers, especially smaller ones, may benefit from focusing on targeted offers and spreading efforts throughout the year.

We’re looking forward to seeing how both shoppers and retailers will come out of this season—and what kind of data will follow.

Sources:

• Adobe Analytics
• Emarketer
• Statista